Despite opposing the development of AI last year, warning of the "profound risks to society and humanity”, Elon Musk appears to be back on the AI train. Just this week, he suggested that the new technology will overtake human intelligence within the next 12 months. This comment, controversial and intriguing at the same time, suggests that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will soon be able to match the human brain's intelligence and (we are guessing here) emotional abilities.

 

What is holding back AI?

 

It was interesting that during the chat about AI, Elon Musk brought up the topic of AGI, a type of artificial intelligence that can perform as well as humans on a wide range of cognitive tasks. AGI is a natural step up from traditional AI - often designed to carry out specific tasks.

 

Elon Musk has a habit of making bold predictions, and, as always, he is prepared to put his money on the table. We know he is raising billions of dollars from investors in the US, Middle East and Hong Kong for his xAI start-up operation. There are unconfirmed reports that the fundraising is valuing the start-up in the region of $18 billion.

 

Looking to the future

 

Aside from the ongoing development of AGI, Musk also suggests that traditional AI capabilities will exceed human intelligence within the next five years. What’s holding back the technology? There was a bottleneck in the supply of microchips, but recent developments at Nvidia are encouraging.

 

As these constraints reduce, the new chips are placing pressure on the capabilities of data centre equipment and the electrical grid. In the words of Elon Musk:-

 

"Last year it was chip constrained…..people could not get enough Nvidia chips. This year, it's transitioning to a voltage transformer supply. In a year or two [the constraint is] just electricity supply."

 

Developments at Grok

 

On Monday, the Tesla co-founder and CEO confirmed that xAI is currently training a second version of his AI tool, Grok. He believes the new version should be better than GPT-4 and is expected to be available around May. The idea is simple: to continue developing and expanding the scope of Grok with a range of new versions planned going forward.

 

Elon Musk tends to split the room with his predictions, such as self-driving Teslas and landing a rocket on Mars - both yet to be fulfilled. However, interestingly, while some have mocked the billionaire entrepreneur, very few disbelieve his predictions. He may be a little ahead of the game and keen to grab the headlines, but he does have a habit of making the right calls on the big issues.

 

Summary

 

Many people were surprised to learn of Elon Musk's growing belief that AGI will soon challenge the human race's intelligence. Whether this developing technology will be able to match humans next year remains to be seen, but it looks as though we are pretty close. It was also interesting to see the involvement of Hong Kong investors in the ongoing fundraising for xAI, but it was no surprise due to the Hong Kong authorities' forward-thinking approach to technology. It looks like we are in for an interesting few years for the AI industry!

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