For many APAC economies, the US dollar is a critical component of financial stability. Its role in trade invoicing, foreign exchange reserves, and external debt binds APAC nations closely to the dollar's performance. This dependence leaves some countries vulnerable to fluctuations in the dollar’s value, particularly when it strengthens, as it has recently. A rising dollar increases import costs, puts pressure on debt servicing, and can stoke inflation, factors impacting everyone from policymakers to consumers.

 

Dollar trading

 

While the APAC region is the largest trade bloc in the world, the strong dollar has a broad effect, even on countries with minimal direct trade with the US. APAC countries typically invoice a substantial portion of their international trade in dollars. Hence, any appreciation in the dollar's value makes imports more expensive and affects trade balances, impacting national budgets and inflation rates across the region.

 

Recent trends: Dollar strength and economic impact

 

The dollar’s recent appreciation, driven by hopes for a strong economy on the back of an “America First” policy from the incoming president, is reshaping economic conditions across APAC. Key impacts include:

 

· Higher debt costs: APAC economies with significant dollar-denominated debt, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, face higher repayment obligations as their local currencies weaken against the dollar. This scenario often restricts budgets, limiting funds for infrastructure and public services.

· Rising inflation: Stronger dollar-driven import costs create inflationary pressure, reducing consumer purchasing power. This effect is particularly sharp for countries heavily reliant on imports for essential goods like energy and food.

· Export dynamics: While a weaker local currency could make exports more competitive, the benefit is often offset by increased costs for imported raw materials essential for manufacturing and export production.

 

Trump’s re-election and potential trade tensions

 

With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, his “America First” stance may further complicate APAC’s economic landscape. Trump’s trade policies often include tariffs and restrictive trade measures, which could re-emerge, potentially targeting APAC economies. This risk comes as the dollar strengthens, posing a dual challenge to APAC exporters. Additionally, if Trump’s administration encourages US companies to repatriate assets or invest domestically, APAC economies may see reduced foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, impacting growth.

 

Central bank strategies: A careful balance

 

APAC central banks are cautiously navigating the current climate, attempting to support economic growth while managing currency stability. For example, some APAC economies have followed the US Federal Reserve's lead with gradual rate cuts, while others, mindful of potential capital outflows and further currency depreciation, have held back on easing measures. This careful balancing reflects a long-term strategy to maintain economic resilience.

 

Conclusion

 

The US dollar’s dominance across APAC remains a stabilising yet challenging force, particularly with uncertainties around potential shifts in US trade policy. To counter these vulnerabilities, APAC policymakers are focusing on trade diversification, promoting local currency use, and reinforcing foreign exchange reserves. 

Regional cooperation, including initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), has also become essential for building resilience against external shocks. This proactive approach will (eventually) see APAC economies reduce their dollar dependency and strengthen regional ties, positioning them to maintain stability amid evolving global pressures. But for now, all eyes will be on the US!

 

 

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